ADDED 11:24AM Nov 11, 2010 by MrShap
[Image: MrShap]
Categories: Baseball

I know we've talked about Lincecum and Halladay and Lee and Sabathia but I didn't know how good Hernandez was until I decided to analyze the game logs of the Cy Young candidates this year. At first, I thought CC was a lock for the award in the American League and still think he'll win but in no way is he the most outstanding pitcher in the league. That honor goes to Felix Hernandez.

Hernandez has CC beat in almost every major pitching category you can think of starting with the most basic stats: innings pitched - 249 vs 237, strikeouts - 232 vs 197, ERA - 2.27 vs 3.18. Although they both started 34 games, Hernandez allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 8 more games than CC (25 vs 17). That's a huge difference, in fact that's 25% of the regular season.

The 9 games that Hernandez gave up 3 or more runs his record was a perfect 0-8. The 17 games that Sabathia gave up 3 or more runs his record was a respectable 7-7. Even the 8 games that Hernandez gave up a measly 2 runs he was a sub 500 pitcher with a record of 2-3 with 3 no decisions. Of the 17 games where Hernandez allowed 1 or no runs, 6 resulted in a loss or a no decision while Sabathia was a perfect 11-0. Kind of explains why Sabathia led the AL in wins with a 21-7 record while Hernandez finished the year at 13-12.

Pitching for the Yankees, Sabathia received roughly twice the offensive support (7.31 runs per start) as Hernandez (3.75 run per start). The Yankees bullpen had an ERA of 3.39 ERA as compared to Seattle's 4.25. The Yankees also led the majors in fielding percentage while the Mariners ranked 20th overall. These are statistics that work in favor of a pitcher in the team context. To say that CC had a huge advantage over Hernandez is an understatement. Had he pitched for the Mariners he would have been hard pressed to win 10 games.

CC had the luxury of knowing that he was going to get tons of offense every time out. Contrast that to the pressure that Hernandez faced never knowing whether his team would score a run and even if they did knowing that he had to be near perfect nearly every time out just to squeak out a victory.

Despite all these disadvantages, Hernandez rose to the occasion game after game. The Yankees sure couldn't beat him (3-0, 0.35 ERA in 3 starts) nor could the rest of the AL East (5-1, 0.63 in 7 starts, that loss was 1-0 to the Blue Jays on Jose Bautista's 50th Home Run).

In his 12 losses and 9 no decisions he still had an ERA of 3.34, almost the same ERA as CC with absolutely nothing to show for it - not one lousy win in 21 starts.

After the All Star break he had a 1.56 ERA in 14 starts, the 3rd-lowest by an AL starter over the past 25 years (R. Clemens - 0.97 in '90, J. Santana - 1.21 in '04).

30 of his 34 starts were quality starts.

Adjusting the 2 pitchers' stats by neutralizing for park, team and league effects results in a league leading 18-8 record and 2.65 ERA for Hernandez as compared to 14-11 and 3.48 ERA for Sabathia.

Comparing Sabathia and Hernandez based solely on stats is a no brainer - Hernandez wins hands down. He was by far the most outstanding pitcher in the American League in 2010 and if the Cy Young Award is an honor bestowed on the best pitcher in the league then he is the clear cut winner, no ifs, ands or buts.

Unfortunately, pitchers with 13-12 records don't win Cy Young Awards.

What a shame!
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